Even though the conference has been weaker overall, it's still sent 3 different teams to the Final Four with 2 Title game losses during that 4 year run.
This season should be a step forward, but many teams seem to be primed to make a leap by the 2019-20 season. In fact, only Nebraska and possibly Wisconsin seem to be in make or break seasons this upcoming season.
On the homepage I have the Top 35 based on roster scores, but here is my prognostication of finishing order this season based on my own estimation of rosters.
#1 Indiana- I may be overestimating the Romeo Langford effect, but I think IU has just enough to knock MSU off the top spot.
#2 Mich. St.- Probably the most likely winner, but I think they don't fully get it going until late in the season.
#3 Maryland- Pretty loaded roster, may go furthest in the NCAA Tournament
#4 Purdue- I think Painter has replacements ready to step in for the departed and Edwards is legit!
#5 Michigan- Beilein actually brings in more than he lost IMO, but it may not gel until February!
#6 Northwestern- Collins gets the Wildcats back in the Dance!
#7 Wisconsin- The Badgers are more likely to finish higher than lower
#8 Iowa- If the Hawkeyes can get the defense moving in the right direction they could surprise
#9 Minnesota- From 4-12 I think are interchangeable, the Gophers have more things that could go wrong than some of the others. I think a couple above will falter and Minny moves up!
#10 Penn St.- Ditto what I said about Minnesota. This should be a good team!
#11 Ohio St.- Another pretty good team that could finish higher, maybe much higher!
#12 Nebraska- Last year they capitalized on a down Big 10. They should be better, but outside shooting is potential serious problem.
#13 Illinois- I think Underwood is moving them in the right direction, but the frontcourt is too big an obstacle in a conference loaded with good-not great teams. Illini are capable of surprising though.
#14 Rutgers- This team may well go win-less, but I think Pikiell will get them competitive in 3 to 4 years.
The Illini have added a couple of bigs late in an effort to bolster what was a frightful situation looming in the frontcourt. The first of the late additions, Anthony Higgs, bolted from a commitment to Ole Miss after the coaching change. Higgs is a 6'8 banger type who learned his role on two time State Champion Perry Hall in Maryland. The second of the late additions, Adonis De La Rosa, is a grad transfer out of Kent State. Adonis, weighing in at 7'0 270ish, took a big leap forward last season with the Golden Flashes. He was a bit turnover and foul prone, but is still a huge get for this roster if he can bounce back from an ACL injury suffered in the MAC semi-final loss to Buffalo.
Underwood has the makings of an interesting squad that is somewhat similar in makeup to his only Oklahoma St. team. The 'Pokes started conference play 0-6 before reeling off 10 wins in the next 11 games, including a big win in Morgantown over #7 West Virginia. The turnaround was largely credited to a mid-season change in defensive philosophy which allowed the undersized Cowboys to more effectively shut down opponents interior scoring.
The Illini look promising in the backcourt and on the wing, so it wouldn't be a shock if they are causing problems for Big 10 foes this season.
The Hoosiers are a bit of a wildcard in that, even though they have talent, Juwan Morgan is the only one of their 9 highly touted prospects to play down the stretch last season. IU's #18 ranked roster is carried by Morgan, Frosh phenom Romeo Langford and Junior big-man Deron Davis. Davis though has an injury cloud hanging over him for the upcoming and if he's unable to log Top 4 minutes, this roster tumbles to around #40.
The inclination here is to expect IU to be very good regardless of the availability of Davis. Coach Miller returns a potential rising star in Justin Smith along with redshirt frosh Race Thompson and intriguing soph Clifton Moore. Add in St. Mary's transfer Evan Fitzner and the (4,4,4) rated Jake Forrester to the front court mix, and one gets the feeling that Miller is excited about his well stocked cupboard up front. Coach's dream Zach McRoberts will surely find ways to contribute as well, though it's not clear how, at this point, with the likes of #54 rated Jerome Hunter and (4,4,4) rated Damezi Anderson also fighting for wing minutes.
The combination of Morgan and Langford promises to be lethal, but just how good the Hoosiers end up being may ultimately be decided by the point guard position, which has been unreliable (put kindly) since the departure of Yogi Ferrell. Frosh Rob Phinisee (4,4,4) could step right in, but we're expecting a breakout season from junior Devonte Green. Green made a splash early last season playing shoe-less, but more often than not seemed clue-less as the season wore on. It's expected that a full year under Miller's tutelage will begin to tap into Green's obvious potential. Al Durham at times was the only trustworthy point a year ago.
The addition of RSCI #50 ranked Joe Wieskamp will likely have an immediate impact for the Hawks. Wieskamp, already a legend in Iowa hoops lore, combines a terrific skillset with an unflappable demeanor and court savvy. Next year brings another Top 50 recruit in coach's son Patrick McCaffrey. Patrick's highly touted brother Connor (4,4,3) rejoins the fray this season after an abbreviated frosh season.
The next 2-3 seasons could see Iowa climb back into the national conversation. How relevant the Hawks are in that conversation will be determined by how much, and how quickly they can improve defensively.
This Maryland roster is a microcosm of the Big 10 conference, in that the Terps seem to be on the verge of taking a major leap forward nationally. However, it's likely that they are a year away from making the leap. I think that they may well be very good by the end of the upcoming season, thereby setting the stage for next season. Even if they take a couple of hits with early entry, there will be a lot returning. The talented Mitchell twins might slip right into the spots left by Fernando and Sticks Smith if they were to bolt early.
Up front the Terps seem to have all the bases covered. Smith is super talented, but pretty thin thus the nickname "Sticks". He should be perfectly complimented by the power and strength of Fernando and Herard (The Haitian Hammer). Tomaic and Bender bring even more versatility to the frontcourt as Tomaic has a great deep stroke as a stretch 4, while Bender is an experienced banger off the bench. It should be noted that Herard always looked overrated to me and his days with Howland seemed to confirm the notion, but he gets a fresh start and could find a way to contribute.
The wings and backcourt are a diverse group of guys that can really put the ball in the hoop. If I had to pick a roster that I thought might be similar to Villanova of recent years, I think this is it. There might be some questions about Turgeon as a coach, but I'll keep an open mind for a couple more years
Michigan has plenty of talent on hand, with 8 highly touted players (4 ranked in the RSCI Top 75). However their roster score is somewhat lower than would be expected due to 4 of the 8 being freshmen. Michigan projects to be the team to show the most improvement over the course of the season of all the the Power 6 conference teams. In fact, if we calculate Michigan's roster for next season, they would come in ranked approx. #14 in the nation. This is a terrific roster that has the look of a year away type of team. That said, Beileins' teams typically outperform roster scores, so a big finish this season may well be in the cards.
If the Wolverines are really good this season, frosh Ignas Brazdeikis will likely be a driving force. He comes in as RSCI #72, but, if we just look at the big 3 services, Brazdeikis is ranked as a 5 Star by Rivals. He reminds me of Wally Szcerbiak watching his highlight videos online and I think I'm in favor of the Rivals designation. I really like DeJulius and Johns to make an impact as frosh as well, but I'm guessing that Castleton will need a year of maturation.
There is plenty to like here and Beilein will likely outperform the roster rating easily again, but I think Wolverine fans will have to wait until the 19-20 season for another Final Four push.
At first glance, the Spartans appear loaded. Every scholarship player on the roster was highly touted out of high school, with 6 garnering a RSCI Top 75 ranking. Among the returnees, Ward and Winston have been awesome, but the rest have been somewhat underwhelming relative to their ranking. I like the frosh, but I think they are going to need to be ready to perform out of the gate for MSU to live up to it's #10 roster ranking.
Up front Bingham and Kithier bring some much needed versatility, particularly Bingham who I think is the key to how good MSU ultimately becomes. Ward is terrific and Tillman can do a decent Derrick Nix imitation when Ward needs a rest, but I don't think they can play together without gumming up the works offensively. Bingham is long and bouncy with a diverse skillset.
Izzo can mix it up pretty good on the wing and in the backcourt, but, unless Langford takes a bit of a leap forward, I think either Brown or Henry will need to be ready to make a big contribution as a frosh for the Spartans to be really, really good. MSU is the preseason conference frontrunner on paper, but I'm expecting that they fall short of projections.
A quick look at the Gophers shows three Top 75 rated kids, but only two other kids garnered at least one 4 Star designation. Yet I think this has the potential to be an underrated group.
First of all, Jordan Murphy has proved to be undervalued and is a high quality collegiate player. The key though up front should be the newcomers. Matz Stockman produced good PER's in limited minutes during his days at UofL. I think he can be a really solid rebounder/shot blocker for the Gophers. Daniel Oturo appears to be a beast who can be a key cog in a really solid frontcourt rotation.
Out on the wing, Coffey will get all the minutes he can handle, and as junior Top 40 kid much is expected. A couple more newcomers have an opportunity to step in and add reliable 3-point shooting. Milwaukee grad transfer Stull and frosh Kalscheur look like capable shooters on tape and will be relied upon to add the balance that was so lacking last season. Washington showed flashes late last season, but needs to live up to his billing as a soph for the Gophers to be a threat.
The Huskers will likely be a trendy pick as a darkhorse contender in the Big 10 this season, and on paper it makes some sense. They return four starters all of whom were highly touted. Three of the four are seniors and the fourth is a junior. The problem is that the two senior guards have shot right around 30% from 3 for their careers. They shoot plenty of them... the shots just haven't fallen frequently.
It will be interesting to see who replaces Gill in the starting lineup. One candidate might be junior center Jordy Tshimanga, which could give the Huskers a more conventional lineup. However, the departed Gill was the teams top 3 point threat, so it might make more sense to fill the spot with a shooter. The best candidate would probably be frosh Karrington Davis, whose highlight reel at least shows him knocking down some jumpers. The best looking newcomer is PG Amir Harris, who appears to be an athletic, defensive wiz with nifty passing skills. Unfortunately, the Harris mixtape doesn't include a single jump shot to analyze.
Copeland and Roby are a formidable pair of forwards, Watson has a globetrotter handle and Palmer is excellent in every aspect other than shooting from range. I like this team, but it's hard to win nowadays hoisting up bricks from deep.
Given the level of talent that has matriculated at Northwestern over the years, it shouldn't be a bridge too far to call this incoming crop the best in Evanston since color TV. The arrival of 1st team All-MVC grad transfer Ryan Taylor would be an absolute boon for the Northwestern of my youth. The fact that Taylor is being joined by two RSCI Top 100 recruits is the stuff of miracles for the purple and black.
The Wildcats must replace Bryant McIntosh, who started in 127 of 129 games over his four year career, with frosh Ryan Greer (3,3,X) who reclassified to join the class of '18. Greer likely would have been higher rated had he stayed in HS for his senior season and seems capable of running the show. He better be, because it's unclear who the back-up PG is on the roster... Jordan Ash I suppose?
If PG is solidified, this roster looks much improved. Scottie Lindsey was a real nice player, but it seems that Taylor and Kopp (#87) should be upgrades at SG. Up front, Young is a nice addition to an experienced group lead by Pardon. Frosh Pete Nance (#86) joins Vic Law on the wing as versatile and skilled players who are able to play several positions. This is a deep and (uh-hem) talented group that has a real shot at getting back to the NCAA Tournament.
The Buckeyes were in dire need of a talent infusion after the loss of long time mainstays Bates-Diop, Tate and Williams. Point guard CJ Jackson and center Kaleb Wesson put up solid numbers last season, though Wesson was too foul prone. The rest of the returnees were pretty dismal. Youth probably played a role along with the fact that Bates-Diop didn't leave many scraps on the table. Regardless, it seems likely that several newcomers will play big roles this season.
In the frontcourt, Jaedon Ledee (#73) has a huge opportunity to grab a starring role from the outset as he has the athleticism and skillset that is lacking among the other bigs. Another frosh, Justin Aherns, will have a good shot to unseat the incumbents on the wing unless the returnees make good strides in the off-season.
The backcourt might be an impressive group. Senior Jackson will run the show, but he is joined by capable transfer Keyshawn Woods as well as a couple of big-time frosh in Luther Muhammad (#65) and Duane Washington (4,3,3) who I think might be really underrated. Ultimately, this team may be too dependent on freshmen to stay in the top half of the conference, but they may be playing really good ball by the end of the season.
The NIT Champs will attempt to continue their climb in the Big 10 without 1st Team All-Big Ten point guard Tony Carr and backcourt running mate Shep Garner. Carr (RSCI #43 in the class of 16) was taken 51st in the NBA draft after a sublime sophomore season in Happy Valley. Garner went out in a blaze of glory himself, hitting on 33 of his 62 moneyball attempts for the Lions in their eight post season contests.
A duo like Carr and Garner are immediately replaceable at only a handful of schools around the country, and Penn State is not one of them. The returnee most likely to fill one of the vacated spots is soph Jamari Wheeler, who carved out a role for himself as a defensive menace last season. Unfortunately, he appears to be a "Gottlieb" as a shooter. Wheeler only knocked down 4 of 28 three point attempts (missing all 11 tries in conference play) along with a frightful 12 of 27 from the charity stripe!
Obviously, a lot will be asked of the frosh quartet of Jones, Dread, Bolton and Kasatkin. I think this is a really good group which is capable of picking up just enough slack to keep PSU in the thick of the Bubble race. Optimism is due to the fact that Chambers has a rock solid roster everywhere else, which should ease the pressure considerably on the green backcourt.
The Boilers lose a quartet to graduation that logged a bunch of minutes together over the course of their careers. It's hard to imagine that the 18-19 squad will be able to match the chemistry that made last years edition so successful. Painter does return the most important piece, however, in point guard Carson Edwards. His presence alone won't make the transition seamless, but it may be enough to keep the Gold and Black in the hunt.
Up front Matt Haarms will be asked to take on a bigger role, but his rookie season suggests that he might be up to the task. Painter added highly touted big Trevion Williams, who is surprisingly skilled for his size. He seems in need of conditioning, but quality minutes are needed more than big minutes this season. Grad transfer Evan Boudreaus will allow the frosh bigs to be eased into action, as he figures to log major minutes as a Brian Cardinal clone.
The key to the season will likely rest on the development of 2nd year players Nojel Eastern (#67) and Aaron Wheeler (3,3,3). Eastern was eased into action last season, while Wheeler took a redshirt. Eastern has high end potential as an all-around player and will be expected to take a big step forward this season. Wheeler is a fantastic athlete who can fill some of the void left by Edwards.
The Scarlet Knights were a fun team to watch last season! The loss in OT at East Lansing was one of the more memorable games of the entire college season. The conference tourney saw coach Pikiell's group win two games including a win over Indiana. Beating IU isn't what it once was, but getting a post season win over hoops nobility is a big deal at a school trying to gain it's footing like Rutgers.
With the loss of Sanders, the heart and soul of last years team, this season holds little promise in New Brunswick. However, Pikiell showed himself to be a capable head coach and he should have plenty of time to get the ship righted, If he can continue to bring in talent like Mathis, Young and Mulcahy (next season), Rutgers will be competitive again within a couple of years.
For now, though, Rutgers fans will have to be content rooting for the upset through 20 Big 10 conference games and hoping to somehow stay out of last place.
The Badgers were already an uncommonly young team last season, then they were further derailed by injuries to Trice and King before the first week of December was complete. As if that weren't enough bad luck, the leader in minutes played was a true frosh (Brad Davison) who played with a chronic shoulder dislocation issue from late November onward. Nevertheless, Gard's crew showed progress as the season drew to a close; winning 5 of their last 8 including a win over #6 ranked Purdue and two close losses to #2 ranked Michigan St.
With everyone of consequence returning and healthy (presumably), this could be a big bounce back season for Bucky. Ethan Happ's decision to continue his ascension up the Big 10 all-time scoring list, for one last season, instantly makes the frontcourt a strength. Reuvers (#68) should be poised to make a leap forward in his second season, and it is much needed as neither Thomas or Illikainen have developed. True frosh Currie fits the mold of a Wisconsin big, but probably needs a year.
The wing and backcourt should be in capable hands with three highly touted players, each with at least one season under their belts. Trice, Ford and Iverson, though not highly touted, are each integral parts themselves. Late signee Tai Strickland looks vastly under-rated on tape and could have a substantial impact! One strange fact that should be noted is that senoir Kahlil Iverson is now 6 of 49 from three point range in his career (12.2%), but last year he was a miraculous 0 for 24! I wonder if anyone has ever went 0 for 25 or worse in one season?
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