The Rosters and Ratings found here are mostly based on recruiting rankings and experience. The individual player ratings are nothing more than averages found over a seven year period for recruiting ranking tier and experience level (class). The team rankings are derived from a weighted formula that converts to an expected Sagarin Rating.
I do a little bit of conservative guesswork for some foreign recruits and transfers. I'm working on something a little more precise for the transfers going forward, but I haven't had the spare time to get it done in time for this season.
Obviously, some players are going to be under or over valued. Booms and busts are plentiful as the rating services are somewhat less than prophetic. That said the major basketball scouting services found on-line are better than many give credit for, therefor I think their ratings are useful.
I probably could take it a step further and use formula's based on PER's, but I think there is already plenty of good stuff out there that is better than what I would come up with. I like keeping the recruiting rankings intact because A) Nobody else has something similar for me to refer to B) It is a decent layperson way to evaluate coaches.
Anyway, here is the 2018-19 Top 35 with projected Sagarin Ratings. I only do rosters for the Power Six conferences, but I do score the mid-major rosters to find out who belongs in the Top 35. I have Gonzaga and Nevada calculated, but still need to check a few American conference teams as well as the A-10. I do a Top 35, because about 35 teams usually make "The Dance" from the Power Six.
The Protected Seeds
The Rest
Teams in Red have a wider than normal gap between floor and ceiling, while teams in Blue have a tighter than normal gap between floor and ceiling. A teams ceiling assumes every player reaches next year's pre-season potential by the end of this season. The floor assumes every player makes no progress during the playing season and leaps forward only during the summer.
Louisville has the triple asterisk because they have multiple players who would qualify as busts relative to their recruiting ranking. There may be other teams, but the Cards jumped off the page. By the end of July, I should have a team by team analysis. It probably wont be as insightful as Dakich, but hopefully a notch or two above Dickie V.
Anyway, it gives us something to look at as June comes to an end.
